Incorrect use of expected_new_cases
something wrong in the model regarding the expect_new_cases
I investigated and It seems that when we have short-range interactions the expect_new_cases
takes the last infection_probability
value which is the one from short-range and then multiply by the occupants exposed to long-range. Which is incorrect I believe ?
The expect_new_cases
should always take the long-range infection_probability
and multiply by the occupants exposed to long-range.
See in this example (URL below)
Total occupants: 12 Total infected: 1 Total exposed: 11
So the expect_new_cases
should be 1.6 % * 11 = 0.176
…and not 1.47
The 1.47 is coming from 13.4 % * 11 = 1.47 … which is wrong right?
In the end I think it should be:
E.g. in case of SR, the expect_new_cases
should be = P(I)_ SR * 1 occupant_SR + P(I)_Long-range * x occupant_LR
?