Disease prevalence in our local area - next version
Include the disease prevalence in our local area in a future update - Probability of someone being infected in a given region and time period.
@jdevine I believe we discussed this at one point...
Data may be found here: https://covid19-projections.com/
This parameter is not easy to quantify accurately, but one can hope to get the order-of-magnitude right from the disease prevalence data and/or the epidemiological models. People are thought to be contagious mostly the week around the onset of symptoms, so that has to be taken into account in the estimates. Also there is a fraction of undetected contagious cases (asymptomatic / presymptomatic), which will increase transmission. Plus one would hope that a major fraction of the cases that are in quarantine or a hospital and not transmitting the disease much. The uncertainty on the fraction of contagious individuals in the community is one more reason why the absolute risk values will be uncertain, but the relative risks will still be robust.